2015 VS. 2016 –

WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE?

 

Jan                   Jan

                                                                        2015                2016                CHANGE

# Residential Listings SOLD                           12                    20                    +67%

Avg. List Price                                                 $275,200         $353,340         +28%

Avg. Sales Price                                              $268,636         $338,871         +26%

Sales Volume SOLD                                       3.2 mil             $6.8 mil           +113%

Sold Price/List Price ratio                             97.56%           94.52%              -3%

Avg. Price/SF                                                  $153.71           $210.83           +37.2%

Avg. Days on Market                                     203                  134                  -34%

# SOLD per $100,000 Price Bracket

$100,000 – $199999                                     2                      6                      +300%

$200,000 – $299,999                                    7                      7                      -0-

$300,000 – $399,999                                    2                      5                      +250%

$400,000 – $499,999                                    1                      1                      -0-

$1,800,000 -$1,899,999                               0                      1                      +100%

 

Highlight discussion:

  • The number of sales increased from 12 to 20. Some of the sales which closed in 2016 would have typically closed in December, 2015, however, new regulations went into effect on Oct. 3, 2015, and the effect was to slow down sale closings and/or delay closings from December to January.
  • The Average Sales Price increased some 28% and the Sales Price per square foot increased some 37%.
  • The Sales Price to List Price ratio declined slightly by 3%.
  • The Days on Market dropped significantly (by 69 Days or 34%). It took less time on the market in 2016.
  • Sales in the $100,000 and $300,000 price categories jumped significantly. Other categories stayed about the same except in January, 2016 there was one sale in the $1.8 mil range. In January, 2015 there were no sales above the $400,000 range.
  • In both 2015 and in 2016, at least 90% of the sales were under $400,000.
  • The most prolific Sales Price Category was in the $200,000 price range where there were 7 sales in both 2015 and in 2016.

 

INVENTORY

To say that our Average List Price of the 78 Active Residential Listings in Fredericksburg is “a little high”would be an understatement. At $562,000 +, the Average List Price in Fredericksburg tends to be higher than other Central Texas Hill Country towns.* If I use the January, 2016 monthly sales pace and look at the level of inventory per price bracket, the results are as follows:

 

                                                2016

Price Bracket              # Active Listings         Jan. Sales        Inventory (Months)              

$100,000                        2                                 6                      10  days

$200,000                       18                                7                      2.6 mos

$300,000                       18                                5                      3.6 mos

$400,000                       13                                1                      13  mos

$500,000 to max         27                                 1                     27  mos

When inventory is less than 6 mos, the market is considered to be a Seller’s Market. When inventory exceeds 6 mos, it is considered to be a Buyer’s Market. Using the month of January, 2016 as the yardstick to measure sales by, the indications are that Fredericksburg has a Seller’s Market for listings up to the $300,000 price bracket (sales for less than $200,000 are a dying phenomenon). When the Sales Price goes to $400,000 +, it leans towards a Buyer’s Market. Inventory levels jump from a 3.6 months to over 1 year when the price level goes to $400,000. But please do not jump to conclusions too fast here! I caution you not to use one month as the sole indicator! Sales are seasonal and tend to accelerate in the spring and summer.

 

*TOWN COMPARISON

Average List Price                      Average LP /SF

(Active Res Listings

as of 2/16/2016)

 

Fbg                                           $562,140                                    $254.36

New Braunfels                        $426,751                                    $163.79

San Marcos                             $404,894                                    $157.50

Kerrville                                   $386,087                                    $140.20

Seguin                                      $299,901                                    $133.98

 

Feb. 14, 2016

 

78 Active Residential Listings in Fredericksburg

  Low High Average Median Total
List Price $169,500 $3,295,000 $562,140 $421,950 $43,846,884
Price/SqFt ($) $117.08 $1,376.93 $254.36 $198.50
Days on Market 2 2322 161 112.5

 

Same 78 Active Listings from Table Above

Shown in $100,000 List Price Increments

 

Price Range Count Sum Price Average Price Median Price Average DOM
 
$100,000 – $199,999 2 $369,000 $184,500 $184,500 71
$200,000 – $299,999 18 $4,799,199 $266,622 $277,500 105
$300,000 – $399,999 18 $6,479,950 $359,997 $354,450 231
$400,000 – $499,999 13 $5,922,200 $455,554 $450,000 175
$500,000 – $599,999 8 $4,612,250 $576,531 $580,000 178
$600,000 – $699,999 3 $2,018,500 $672,833 $695,000 106
$700,000 – $799,999 5 $3,811,950 $762,390 $748,000 175
$800,000 – $899,999 2 $1,714,000 $857,000 $857,000 141
$900,000 – $999,999 3 $2,865,835 $955,278 $950,000 93
$1,100,000 – $1,199,999 1 $1,165,000 $1,165,000 $1,165,000 103
$1,300,000 – $1,399,999 2 $2,794,000 $1,397,000 $1,397,000 135
$1,500,000 – $1,599,999 1 $1,500,000 $1,500,000 $1,500,000 102
$2,500,000 – $2,599,999 1 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 136
$3,200,000 – $3,299,999 1 $3,295,000 $3,295,000 $3,295,000 259
 
Totals: 78 $43,846,884  
Averages:   $562,140 $421,950 161

2/14/2016 4:11:52 PM

 

Feb. 14, 2014

 

12 SOLD Residential Listings in Fbg

Jan. 1 – Jan. 31, 2015

  Low High Average Median Total
List Price $159,000 $429,900 $275,200 $269,250 $3,302,400
Selling Price $156,000 $425,000 $268,636 $262,500 $3,223,637
Sold/List(%) 93.19% 100.00% 97.56% 98.23%
Price/SqFt ($) $107.26 $291.67 $153.71 $153.50
Days on Market 16 604 203 159

Same 12 Sales shown in Table above

Shown here in Sales Price Increments of $100,000

 

Price Range Count Sum Price Average Price Median Price Average DOM
 
$100,000 – $199,999 2 $334,637 $167,319 $167,319 225
$200,000 – $299,999 7 $1,785,000 $255,000 $260,000 214
$300,000 – $399,999 2 $679,000 $339,500 $339,500 110
$400,000 – $499,999 1 $425,000 $425,000 $425,000 265
 
Totals: 12 $3,223,637  
Averages:   $268,636 $262,500 203

 

Feb. 14, 2014

 

20 SOLD Residential Listings in Fbg

Jan. 1 – Jan. 31, 2016

  Low High Average Median Total
List Price $149,000 $1,800,000 $353,240 $288,200 $7,064,800
Selling Price $148,000 $1,850,000 $338,871 $269,500 $6,777,425
Sold/List(%) 68.18% 102.78% 94.52% 96.56%
Price/SqFt ($) $99.80 $763.20 $210.83 $153.50
Days on Market 32 361 134 110.5

 

Same 20 Residential Listings from above table

Shown in $100,000 SALES PRICE Increments

 

Price Range Count Sum Price Average Price Median Price Average DOM
 
$100,000 – $199,999 6 $1,031,400 $171,900 $169,250 86
$200,000 – $299,999 7 $1,836,500 $262,357 $265,000 160
$300,000 – $399,999 5 $1,648,725 $329,745 $325,000 152
$400,000 – $499,999 1 $410,800 $410,800 $410,800 32
$1,800,000 – $1,899,999 1 $1,850,000 $1,850,000 $1,850,000 245
 
Totals: 20 $6,777,425  
Averages:   $338,871 $269,500 134

2/14/2016 3:10:26 PM

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